Everything changes in the Playoffs! It’s an old expression and while it’s not entirely true there certainly is a lot of merit in it. It seems to happen in every sport interestingly enough. In Basketball this typically leads to improved defensive stats in the playoffs. Increased player effort and refs letting smaller fouls go can drop scoring by up to 10% in the playoffs but typically no more than 5%. That’s a big change. Let’s dig into the real reasons for ‘Playoff Basketball’ and what kind of impacts we can expect with the Raptors.
So rather than spend a week digging through numbers I found a great job by another basketball analyst to review and credit. Here it is… Mika Honkasalo. I highly recommend it as it’s really short and highly fact based. Actually it starts out like this:
The discussion surrounding playoff basketball– what tendencies, traits or factors increase/decrease expected performance compared to the regular season– is filled with unsubstantiated nonsense.
I couldn’t have said it better myself! To be honest I’ve fallen victim to it myself and would caution fans to be careful before believing anything you read from ‘experts’. Not many have actually crunched the numbers. Many simply go with their ‘gut’ and ‘expertise’ about Ball. I guess that’s what opinions are all about but having some statistical analysis doesn’t hurt. So with that in mind let’s dig in…
…top 7 (teams) on defense and outside the top 15 in offense, won about 2 games (compared to expectations) MORE than did teams with the reverse profile
Good news for the Raptors! Since the addition of Jak they’ve been top 5 defensively and should be able to maintain that in the playoffs. 2 extra wins in the playoffs is a HUGE advantage! In fact the Raptors defense has been SO GOOD there might be a bit more advantage here. The fact that the Raptors offense has been so good as well is a big bonus.
the 10 best offensive rebounding teams in the past five seasons (7 years ago) have have done particularly poorly; 2.3 games below their expected win totals.
The Raptors are 2nd in the league today…the Rockets 1st!!! Terrible company! I suspect this is a huge sign of a poor shooting team and as the pressure ramps up in the playoffs and shots have even less room to happen poor shooting teams get exposed. It’s also a sign of higher defensive effort by all teams in the playoffs and teams that rely on offensive rebounds simply don’t get them anymore and perform worse in the playoffs.
6 out of the 7 teams that most outperformed expectations were in the top 7 in effective field goal percentage.
Toronto currently sits at 28th in the NBA on eFG%. Very bad news. I believe what this is showing is how important those ‘unstoppable’ type of players are in the playoffs. When defenses can lock in and adjust it takes that truly dynamic offensive scorer to keep reliably getting points. They just make the right moves and instinctively know how they are getting covered. They are so good at what they do they just can’t be stopped easily. The twist here is that Jakob is sitting 9th in the NBA at highest eFG% currently and he wasn’t in Toronto all that long so the average is misleadingly low. O.G. is the next highest Raptor at #53 in the NBA currently.
Teams that are very good in Assist% … being in the top-5 was a plus of around 1.7 games.
Toronto is 23rd in the NBA now. It has moved up a bit lately but we might be reaching for some hopium with this one.
Having superstars– defined as the top players in win shares per 48 minutes with significant minutes played– seems to make no difference whatsoever.
Good news because Pascal’s more a ‘Superstar Lite’ than a monster NBA Superstar. We don’t need to be afraid going up against other teams stars anymore…
Among the 13 teams that have ranked in the top 5 in pace during the regular season, only three have outperformed expectations…
The Raptors are 26th in the NBA for Pace (# of possessions) so they are playing the right way to win in the Playoffs.
Takeaways
Toronto’s great defense is likely more than counterbalanced by its reliance on offensive rebounds.
Jakob’s offensive contribution will be critical because it’s so highly efficient. O.G.’s contribution will also be critical.
Passing leads to more wins that Superstars! If the Raptors pass more they should do better than expected.
I would like to add one thing on top of that statistical analysis thou…
Another huge difference is the consistent preparation time and in depth adjustments teams can make during a 7 game series. Both teams play in the same cities on the same days with a one day break almost always between games. The finest of adjustments can be worked out to exploit player tendencies that coaches find. By the end of Game 2 players know every play and every set the other team runs. They can start to feel it coming earlier and blow up actions or at a minimum be covering it much much closer. This is where the fine coaching adjustments become crucial to success. One step toward the basket off a screen can be one too many. A hesitation to take a step towards that same basket off a screen can be deadly. It’s all a matter of extremely fine adjustments that coaches will make that are specific to the player you are going up against. Top quality coaching staffs tend to win more playoff series or at least always take playoffs series to games 6 or 7. Weaker staffs can’t find adjustments and get blown out in 4.
Sometimes there is a ‘series changing’ adjustment thou that the other team simply can’t handle. Like a ‘Small Ball’ lineup that can’t be stopped shooting wise or a ‘Jumbo’ lineup that exposes too many weaknesses at the same time for small coaching adjustments to fix. This is an area where the Raptors have an advantage over most teams I believe. Nick Nurse is incredibly adaptive on the fly with changes in game that tend to help his team stay in the game. When he gets a full day off between games with a video session he’s simply deadly with adjustments that can harshly exploit other teams. I wouldn’t put 2 other coaches above Nick in this skill in the NBA and there are a ton of amazing head coaches in the NBA.
Conclusion
The Raptors great defense I thought could carry them farther this playoffs. I was wrong. Their reliance on offensive rebounding turns out to be a large negative factor I didn’t anticipate. Their poor effective field goal rating, while the addition of Jak greatly improves, I suspect will not be good enough for playoff success beyond expectations. Toronto’s poor assist rates this year will NOT help them come playoff time. While I expect the Raptors coaching to outperform it will be a minor benefit. Their offense, while very good lately, may struggle in the playoffs without the balanced attack inside and outside that is harder to stop.
I simply don’t see any statistical based analysis to really expect the Raptors to win a playoff series this year. In fact I’m concerned about them even making the playoff series if they don’t take 8th place as 2 wins in a row on the road seem unlikely. Not impossible, just unlikely.
Sorry again Raps fans! Forget everything you just read and cheer them on wildly! Statistics are for losers anyway! The game’s played between the lines and the players get to decide it. I’m right beside you cheering them on…