Sudden Death is a brilliant phrase! It perfectly captures the moment in sports when there is only one game and the winner continues playing while the loser’s season is over. These professional athletes Eat, Sleep and Dream every moment about their sport during the year. They fit absolutely everything in their lives around basketball schedules. They rest when they would rather be out golfing or having fun. They work out when they would rather be playing video games (that’s you, Scottie). The commitment these athletes give to basketball is total. It’s life-consuming. So while fans get really upset when the season ends believe me it is 100 times worse for players. They are more ‘All In’ than many people can even imagine. When Joel Embiid cried walking off the floor years ago I felt his pain. Sudden Death is real.
The Bulls and Raptors get to share this incredible moment together Wednesday night next week in Toronto. It’s a game most players will remember for a long time no matter what happens because of the Do or Die situation. To analyze the teams heading into this game we typically review the games played this season. However in this situation these teams had a very early season back to back, home and away, Nov. 7 and 8th. Both home teams won and the addition of Jak at the trade deadline has significantly altered Toronto’s team since November. I’m simply going to throw out those 2 games for the most part in my analysis for this Do or Die game. They would mostly add noise to any analysis where I like to focus on the most relevant data possible. So it’s the last game, Mar 1, I’ll focus on where the Bulls visited Toronto which is the exact same situation this coming Wednesday. This game should tell me much of what I need to know about the matchup for this big Play In game.
Of course I’ll look to the smartest person I know to tell me about that March 1st game…myself! Hahaha! Here are a few quotes in my March 1 game summary I’ll link to here.
In one of the tightest games all year both teams battled tough and didn’t give an inch.
Exactly what I expect this Wednesday. Even more so given the Do or Die nature of the game. This Play In game will likely come down to the last 2 mins and execution of a few critical plays.
(Gary) Efficiently scored and going 5 for 11 from deep is exactly what this lineup needs.
Gary came off the bench and played a critical role for this Raptors team that simply can’t shoot well and can’t shoot the 3 ball much. These shots keep the Bulls honest in their Defensive scheme and are critical to make.
(Vucevic) Efficiently contributed offensively and stepped up defensively as well. Without the 6 turnovers would have been a perfect game from him
The Raptors need to shut down the Bulls center better than last game. While they certainly played him tough and stripped the ball from him he can’t put up 23 pts like last game. He went 4-6 from deep so expect him to try to exploit Jak out deep early this Wednesday. If Jak can pressure him better out high without getting exposed down low will be one of the key ingredients for a Raptors win. Watch for it closely.
(Pascal) A bit quieter than usual for the Heart of the Raptors but he battled through a lot of tough coverage in this tighter game.
The Bulls tried to take away Pascal with great defensive coverage. They did to a certain degree. This will be a big key for this game as well. Pascal only had 3 assists that game and went 1 for 5 from 3. Both showing how effectively the Bulls kept him outside and not dishing it off well when they did stop him. Nick will have a focused package of schemes to get Pascal into better situations this Wednesday I promise you. Look early in the game for how and where Pascal is getting the ball and how he attacks. You’ll see Nicks plan…and how it works. By the end of the 1st quarter we’ll know if Pascal’s going to dominate. If not the coaching scramble is on to get him going because the Raptors need him scoring to win. It’s that simple.
(O.G.) He’s gets all the toughest match ups everynight and if he’s not up to the challenge the Raptors can get buried in a hurry by some NBA star. It’s more pressure than many players can handle each and every game all year.
O.G. is going to be all over Zach and Demar. I expect Zach gets the O.G. warm blanket first to try and turn him off for the whole game. However If Demar starts hitting shots you’ll see O.G. on him right after a Raptor time out to stop the bleeding. Offensively if O.G. can drop 20 with 40% from 3 he’s contributed more than enough for one man. O.G. can do that easy and I expect a big game because O.G. is such a calm personality.
5 for 11 in 35 minutes? A ton of Demar fans went home with a rude awakening tonight. Demar’s game gets shut down in tight, playoff type games.
Demar got shut down big time last trip to Toronto. This Wednesday might be different as the stakes are much, much higher and he’ll be looking to end Toronto’s season and put a knife in Masai’s back at the same time. Don’t believe for a second he’s over what happened to him in Toronto. We’re going to see the most motivated Demar Derozan we’ve ever seen Wednesday. I’m worried. I wouldn’t be surprised to hear Scottie asked to cover Demar pre-game. I like Scottie’s out high defense as well so Nurse probably let’s him try to start. Ultimately thou a lot of Raptors are going to have to work together to slow Demar down. If he gets hot the Raptors could be on a beach in a hurry.
Lots of turmoil going on behind the scenes for this guy (Freddy) as his 1 for 11 shooting and only 3 points shows.
Freddy’s game has recovered greatly since then but he still has the occasional bad game. However I expect him to be much, much better than he was March 1. The fact the Raptors could even win with such a poor performance from him that game shows how deep the Raptors really are. I’ll be carefully watching for Freddy’s efficiency this Wednesday. Hero ball poor shot-taking will have me screaming at the TV. Opportunistic shot-taking and drives forcing the D to commit then dishing it for great looks will make me smile. I’m not entirely sure which Freddy will show up to be honest. The Freddy that runs Pick n Rolls with Jak until the other team stops them is a Freddy I like as well. That will be an early sign Freddy is trying to get everyone on the team rolling. Defensively he’ll be covering Coby White a lot and it could be a problem. The guy is fast and a good shooter. If Freddy can’t D up his guard a lot of breakdowns begin happening very quickly.
(Scottie’s) ‘lack of intensity’ reputation is firmly established after this Jekell and Hyde performance. Brutal in the first 3 quarters then turned it on in the 4th and dominated.
I expect a much, much more focused effort from Scottie Wednesday. With that I simply know he can seriously impact any game cause he’s got the skills. He’s likely not to be the top 2 options offensively but if Pascal of Freddy stumble or get stopped Scottie should be the guy to step up. The Bulls don’t have the size to match up well against Scottie that far down the lineup so his elbow package of moves should be there. That’s what I’ll be looking to see…how Scottie works up high with his passing or him getting down at the elbow and forcing his way to a good look within 5 feet.
Here are a few more Keys that I’ll be looking for in Wednesday’s game…
More Keys
Jak
The Big Man has to shut down the rim as well as cover Vucevic out high. Tall order! We could see him matched up against Andre Drummond a bit more with Precious seeing some floor time against Vucevic. Jak’s efficiency on offense in the PnR will be important to get so his finish at the rim early in the game is important to see. If he misses a few bunnies the Raptors will go away from the PnR and the game will get much, much harder to win.
Wildcards
Pat Beverly
Who knows what this guy is going do eh? He’s hyper competitive so you can fully expect trash talking and trying to get some guys out of their games. Scottie is probably down for some good banter but Pascal needs to keep Pat out of his head. If Pat crosses the line like he is quite likely to do the Raptors need to stay focused and not get ejected. He’d like nothing better than to get Freddy kicked out with him.
Chris Boucher
Mr. Energy will get as much time as he earns this Wednesday. He’ll come off the bench shooting and playing long defensively…especially out high. If he’s hitting a few 3’s and blocking a few opponents 3’s he’ll have changed the momentum in this Do or Die game. He can.
Will Barton
Will brings a vet ball handler and shooter off the bench who can contribute in a lot of ways as a back up guard.
Barton had just arrived but didn’t really impact this March 1st game. He’s spent some time adjusting to life in Toronto and while he hasn’t until recently made much impact he certainly is a veteran guard that could impact this Do or Die game with 10-15 mins and 15 pts. He’s an NBA proven microwave scorer and Nick will give him a few minutes to see how hot his bench gunner is Wednesday night. That’s a possible bonus the Raptors didn’t have Mar 1.
Prediction
I have the Raptors confidently winning this game. They didn’t play their best and won the last time with a full Bulls squad March 1 in Toronto. I expect Freddy and Scottie to play better this Wednesday. I expect the Raptors D to be even better with the last month gelling together as well. It would take some insanely great 3 point shooting for the Bulls to pull off the upset in Toronto. LaVine or Demar could get super hot but the Raptors have enough fire power to win this game bar a full-on collapse. Anything can happen but I doubt it.
Raps Win!
Raptors should win the first round playin game. Should they advance, the 2nd playin game is winnable. They then have to play the Bucks. I can see that going 5 or 6 games but in the end the Bucks should prevail. If the Raps were to win the series, that would be a huge upset to say the least. Good luck Raptors fans. Hopefully Poeltl has a big playoff series.
Rest our starters. If not complete rest max out their minutes at 20.