Being a Play In team sucks. While the Raptors as a company will sell this to fans as an ‘opportunity’ and a ‘you never know’ type situation any thoughtful Fan knows. This team isn’t near good enough to do much in the Playoffs. I hate to burst some people’s bubbles but the playoffs are 7 game series for a reason. That reason is to allow the better team to show itself and not get bounced by a hot player one night. The Raptors this year simply have almost no extended winning streaks that would show they have the depth of quality to win more than 1 playoff series. In fact going up against one of the best Eastern teams in the first round and actually winning the series would be a massive achievement for this Raptors team. The odds are so slim of this happening I have to write about the future beyond this playoffs. While it will be interesting to watch and hope springs eternal I’m with Masai…Play In for what???
The NBA is a massive copycat league. Currently the Team construction formula goes something like this:
Starters
Scoring Guard and Defensive Combo Guard
Scoring/Attacking Wing and Defensive 3 shooting Wing
Center with as much passing and shooting as you can get
Bench
A defensive and offensive Guard
Multiple Wings that penetrate, defend, shoot 3’s to different degrees
Center, defensive stopper
That’s the ‘Basic’ formula and while each team adds their own flavour to it every NBA coach wants these types of players to match up successfully. The reason is pretty obvious. Coaches need flexibility to adjust ‘on the fly’ both offensively and defensively. If their opponent brings more offense than usual they need better defense. Better outside shooting demands less interior stoppers and more perimeter defense. It goes on and on. Coaches need to adjust every game to the opponent as well as what the opponent is trying to do. So where do the Raptors fit into this Formula??? How ‘Good’ of a fit is each player??? Let’s look…
Raptors Current Construction
Starters
Scoring Guard - Gary.
Sadly Gary has failed to turn into a starting NBA scoring guard so far. The role demands over 20 pts a night on efficient shooting especially a great 3 pt shot. At almost 33 mins a game Gary is scoring 17.7 pts with a .371 long ball. Good numbers but not starting numbers on a quality playoff team.
Defensive Combo Guard - Freddy
A slow start really hurt Freddy’s image this year however he’s recovered well lately. His 19.8 pts per game on heavy 37 min usage is starter stuff however his 3 pt shooting at .351 is just ok…not starter level on a quality playoff team. Sadly his defense at the point of attack has been poor while his help defense and overall defense has been good. Given his size the defensive limitations are real.
Scoring Wing - Pascal
A blazing start and a cooler past month still leaves Pascal an NBA All Star. While his defense has lacked effort at times he certainly can play great at both ends. Offensively generates a ton of opportunities for himself and others. As close to a 1A option as the Raptors have had outside of Kawhi for decades.
Defensive Wing - O.G.
While O.G. might want more ball I simply want more O.G.. He’s a dominant defensive player that can nullify All-Stars at any position. A unicorn ability any NBA coach dreams of having. Oh, by the way, he pops in 16.8 a night and leads the NBA in steals as well. If you think there is a better 3nD Wing in the NBA name him…I bet you can’t.
Center - Jakob
Mr. Underrated has shown how terrible the Spurs really are since leaving them. Like an ex suddenly free’d from a bad relationship in a killer black outfit Jak has soared high owning the paint defensively and opening up an entirely new Pick n Roll game for Toronto offensively. Sadly his shooting limitations exclude him from being a playoff team contender starting center.
None of this analysis is incredibly controversial stuff. Gary hasn’t performed well enough to avoid getting benched. Jakob didn’t carry the Spurs to any great success as a starting center for many years. Remember our standards are Playoff Contenders…not a Play-in team. While people can quibble about the value of different parts of these guys' games it’s hard to provide evidence these 2 are playoff contending pieces.
Since the acquisition of Jakob thou Gary was benched and Scottie remained in the starting group so he needs to be considered in an ‘unconventional’ 3 Forwards instead of 2 Guard starting lineup. This is a HUGE change from the standard NBA team construction philosophy to be honest. It dramatically lowers the starters scoring potential while increasing their defensive potential by running 3 forwards instead of 2.
Point Forward - Scottie
At nearly 35 mins a night the 2nd year player is adding 15.5 pts, 6.8 boards and 4.7 assists. OK numbers for a starter but not good enough for a Playoff contender at forward. Especially given the loss of a scoring guard while Scottie is shooting an abysmal .295 from 3 pt land. The team’s ‘balance’ is seriously compromised running a second year player so much that can’t shoot the 3 ball at ‘point forward’. The NBA absolutely needs 3 pt shooting to ‘space’ the floor and open up the interior for players to drive successfully to the Rack.
Bottom Line
Since the Jak trade the Raptors have been running an unconventional NBA lineup…and it’s not really working so far. Why? Well they have lost so much 3 pt shooting from the starting group they are overly reliant on interior scoring with Pick n Roll actions. Jak simply can’t shoot 3’s. Scottie better not unless he’s so wide open and feeling it that he can justify it next film session. Pascal’s .335 can’t be considered a ‘weapon’ from deep. Only O.G. and Freddy have NBA deep shooter stats. It has ‘worked’ to a degree but the playoffs will be the ultimate litmus test. I guarantee other NBA Head Coaches will ‘Pack the Paint’ and try to turn off the Raptors interior game come playoff time. In fact you’ll see Spolstra do it tonight with the Miami Heat because he ALWAYS does it against Toronto. He gambles they can’t outshoot him from deep even if he leaves them pretty open out high. Come Playoff time every game will be a deep shooting display by Toronto and they’ll live or die by it simply because other Head Coaches will force them to play that way. Unless Nick can find a way to still score inside the paint while other NBA coaches fight to stop it.
The Fix?
Some VERY difficult roster construction choices need to be made in Toronto. Either the team reverts to a conventional NBA 2 Guard construction or continues to run an unconventional 3 Forward starting unit. Assuming Scottie is untouchable and O.G. is simply too underpaid for his current ability to trade away and Pascal is that All Star you never trade away…all valid assumptions…the Raptors will stay unconventional. That would suggest they need to surround these great forwards with more long ball shooting. However they just traded for a non-shooting starting center that they fully intend on re-signing to a fair contract. Masai is no dummy however so he is obviously thinking he can ‘pound it inside’ much more and find playoff success even if it isn’t working in the regular season that much. We’ll see.
In short…I don’t see an obvious direction for Masai to take to fix this roster...conventionally that is. However, like everything in life, it all boils down to money! The increased contracts of Gary and Freddy will force change upon this team. They are underperforming and at the Tax spending limit. Some changes MUST happen! Resigning Freddy, the team’s one playoff contender level Guard, will require close to a Max contract of about $40 mil per year. That forces Gary out along with Boucher after adding back their replacement costs. Waiving Thad simply pays for the increased contract of Jakob along with Thad’s cheap min contract replacement. The team can ‘hope’ Otto returns and plays some shooting guard next year but he’s injury prone. The team can hope Barton can be a veteran guard back up off the bench. The idea of a serious playoff contending team running a guard group of Freddy, Otto, Will and Dalano is just plain foolish. I include Otto as a guard while most teams would call him a forward in Toronto he’s a bit small to be a forward! I don’t even mention Malachi because I can’t stand the thought of him playing another year in Toronto. If you think adding Dowtin or Wieskamp to that list makes it a serious Playoff contender group then I’ve got a slightly bombed out bridged in Crimea for sale…half price!
This Playoff's Experiment!
The big off season question for the Raptors is shaping up to be around the Guards. Specifically if the Raptors will even run 2 guards anymore. Since the Jak trade they haven’t. That’s by design…and it looks like an interesting experiment to me. It looks like Masai and Nurse are going ‘All In’ on attacking the Paint this playoffs. How successful they are will generate a lot of answers for the team moving forward. Reading the ‘tea leaves’ shows this team won’t have the talent at Guard to run 2 Guard lineups on the floor for any extended length of time next year. They simply don’t have the Cap space to pay for that talent. It looks like Masai might be going Hard against modern NBA team construction theory. He might be thumbing his nose at the modern day love of long ball shooting, instead building a team that pounds the rock inside endlessly. Why? Because it’s an efficient way to score but also…it’s a cheaper way to score given contract prices for long ball shooters.
Is Masai a Basketball Genius? We’ll soon see as these playoff games will show. It’s an incredibly risky move in a professional sports league where millions are riding on just a few more wins.
Dowtin!
He’s not a great back up but he plays solid basketball at both ends of the floor.
I think he is clearly a superior option relative to anyone else we’ve put out there.
Sorry Flynn, Banton and Barton. The three of you have been given every opportunity to take the bull by the horns and secure a spot on the team.
Dowtin has.
Unfortunately, he’s the only one without a secured contract. Let’s see how Ujiri manages this situation.
https://www.thestar.com/amp/sports/raptors/2023/03/27/raptors-jeff-dowtin-jr-has-emerged-as-a-reliable-backup-point-guard-now-the-front-office-has-to-make-a-decision.html
You use the word"thou" on occasion.Should it be "tho",as a shortened form of although?