Raptors Trade Deadline Primer
It's Trade season again...
Well the Raptors have stumbled along this season, teasing with talent and finding many inventive ways to lose close games. While I want to focus on the Trade season for them in this article we’ll have to review what the team has been looking like to get a good handle on what they need or where they should be going. So let’s Dig around…
Review
Top End
Much of the player performances are around what people expected. Scottie’s played well and while his 3 pt shooting % sucks he’s played nicely at PG running the offense more than expected. RJ Barrett has stepped up and looked even better than in New York as the Raptors utilized his diverse skill set better. Poeltl has been his consistent Big Man self doing virtually the same as historically he’s done. Quickley’s barely played so we won’t bother yet. That’s the Top End playing Core moving forward. All doing well with only RJ significantly out performing previous levels.
Mid Level
This is where much of the Raptors changes have happened this year. Agbaji has massively revived his sagging career with a phenomenal year. Having said that he certainly isn’t a Starting level NBA player like the Raptors have been using him at, however he does look to be worth another contract and a more modest Back up defensive guard. If he can keep this level of play up he could be considered part of an 8 man rotation on a Playoff team…but just barely.
Gradey Dick has played better in year 2 and not just scored more but also expanded his offensive workload all over in fact. Between his crashing the boards and cutting for passes or rising up for put backs or dunks…Gradey doing it all offensively. Defensively he’s been game and worked at it, so while the results are still weak the promise of a better future where he bulks up a bit more and learns a few more NBA defensive tricks is promising. He looks to be Starting NBA level on a good team eventually, and that matters as the Raptors rebuild this Core group.
Davion’s scoring has completely dried up with his heightened defensive focus and the high levels of passing this Raptors team demands. With a weak 3 pt shot that didn’t improve this year Davion looks headed towards a minimum contract somewhere in the NBA next year as an end of bench defensive guard with his place in Toronto needing a replacement.
Olynyk hasn’t played much but he’s looked about the same as usual which is no surprise for this NBA Vet. His role should be the back up 4 but the Raptors lack real Centers so he gets miscast too often. He’ll be fine moving forward in the correct role.
Chris Boucher looks the same which is good and bad. His 3pt shot is still sub useful in the NBA at around .300 now. He’s not much of a passer on a team that loves passing. At 32 the Raptors don’t have much use for him anymore.
Bruno Fernando has looked as expected…which is weak. He just can’t use his hustle and effort to be a great player at the NBA level. Not a surprise really.
Rookies
The new guys have out performed expectations generally and there are some clear legit NBA players in this group.
Ja’Kobe Walter leads the crew with a polished shot and quality offensive instincts. He can drive and get to his spot and while the returns are certainly early, he looks defensively capable but will need a lot more seasoning on that end to improve. As a 2 Guard in the NBA he should have enough scoring to at least be a good bench option. Too early to say much more.
Mogbo has played well but his skillset looks to top out at connecting role off the bench. He doesn’t seem to have a ‘Super Skill’ and simply does a lot of good things while on the floor. Bench role.
While Jamal Shead has earned a lot of praise for the occasional outlier performance for the most part he’s looked back up level PG at best. His shooting is simply not good enough to start in the NBA so the other defensive and passing skills he brings are important for him to keep his job. He’s looked good enough to invest more development time rather than resign Davion however and that’s an important step forward for the young man. First battle won.
Speaking of Battle, Jamison Battle has looked nice in his limited time. His shot is pure and his hustle is top shelf. As an overage pick up at 23 years old he’s looked well worth an NBA contract and a bench role during the long NBA season. His hard work should help him improve and with that great deep shot a back up 3nD rotation guy isn’t impossible with his good size…I just won’t go there yet without more information.
Team Needs
So the Raptors need more talent, but that gets said a lot so let’s be more specific. They need more Center talent and more Wing talent. Now let’s get even MORE specific! They need larger center talent and larger Wing talent. Preferably guys that could play in the top 8 rotation.
Rebuilding require ‘projections’ and so we’ll do that. If we project this team out 3 years from today and expect to have a Playoff team the guys we have now would be
Center PF SF SG PG
??? Scottie RJ Barrett Gradey Dick IQ
Jak ???? Agbaji ? Ja’Kobe Shead ?
You’ll notice that Jak has aged down into a back up role being 32, leaving a very big hole in our planned roster construction. If he can still start that 3rd year out he certainly can’t for the next couple more years so the back up would have to become the starter. Of course Kelly Olynyk isn’t even on the team in 3 years so the back up PF role is completely empty. I currently don’t project Mogbo to be good enough to back up in the NBA. I also question if Shead can back up PG in the NBA, but the possibility might be there. I also question if Agbaji is good enough to back up SF on a Playoff team, but this year certainly has been impressive.
Ultimately the team needs to add another All Star level player to become serious playoff contenders to that group projected above. THAT group with a ‘good player’ added would simply be a playoff team and not a top contender.
I wouldn’t bank on Chomche turning into a starting Center in the NBA, but I’m sure Raptors Fans will. I don’t even pencil him in as a back up right now of course.
So the Rebuilding Raptors should be targeting young players that recently arrived in the NBA within the past couple years…or draft picks. Anyone NOT on the above projection list should be considered easily expendable.
Targets
Hard to get…
Santi Aldama, Nic Claxton
Realistic possibilities…
Deandre Ayton, Jay Huff, Walker Kessler
As you can see, the list of Centers that ‘might’ fit this 3 yr out projection are really slim. The reality is the team is much better off trying to draft a solution…but that has to happen FAST because they need to develop in 3 yrs to be good enough to win playoff games. That’s already a big ask.
The targets at PF are a bit wider and better, but again the availability is challenging as most teams don’t want to give up big wings.
Targets
Hard to get…
Camara, Julian Champagnie, Buzelis,
Realistic….
Amir Coffey, John Collins, Deni Avdija, Acheiwa
Again, not a great list but this is the reality of what the Raptors are dealing with. Rebuilds through the Draft allow teams a lot more control over their roster building in a long term way.
Sample Negotiation Breakdown…
If I’m Raptors GM I call up the Blazers, immediately and often. They have a bunch of guys I’m interested in that might be available and might be cheap enough to get. My Big targets are Deni Avdija and Shaedon Sharpe. Of course my first ask is never my real target, so I’m asking about TimeLord Williams III and Dalano Banton and Camara (everyone asks about him). I’ll get some interesting answers on those support guys and I’ll learn which ones they’d be willing to throw in for cheap. The Blazers will come back at me trying to sell Jerami Grant and possibly whispering Scoot in my ear. Grant is a Hard No but the price for Scoot would be very interesting.
That’s when I swing big and tell them I’ve heard they are struggling to move Deandre Ayton. I’d ask if they wanted to swap him for Jak Poeltl as he’d be far easier to move and cash in, but how I’d need something young with potential to swallow that extra money and help them out. It might be their best move to clear the way for Clingon and Ayton gives me a younger Jak that fits the Core groups window better and can shoot. In a couple years I clean up his contract with a better one based on his play anyway, so I’m only eating an extra $14 mil for 2 years. Not great but I’m rebuilding and should have more young cheap players now anyway.
To get off Ayton I want Sharpe…but I’ll take Avdija. Sharpe likely is a Hard No and I get that…he’s got a lot of potential. I love Deni’s insane movement inside Darko’s offensive system and just know it would take him to another level. So That’s a Poeltl and Brown for Ayton and SS or Deni. If both of those are No’s then I’m shifting gears again and asking if they want to go in a different direction and bring Scoot into the deal. He’s only 20 and his value might be the lowest it’s gonna be for the next 10 years…so I’m interested in developing him and that value. I throw out an offer of Ayton and Scoot for Jak, Brown and the recently rehab’d Agbaji. It’s doubtful Ochai ever looks as good as he does right now and this is a Sell High move. Maybe the Blazers want better D??? We should be close enough to throw in some feel good second round pick. If not I’m trying to up sell Chris Boucher as a useful vet they can resign cheap in their shooting system and willing to take Timelord Robert Williams back if that’s a piece that want to move off. I take Timelord because Centers like him are easy NBA money at his contract price. At the very end of the negotiation when we’re super close, I try to steal Camara or Banton in to ‘balance’ it a bit better cause my second round pick will be ‘high’. This explains my warm up offer strategy and knowing which small guy to toss in that they won’t cry over.
Conclusion
Of course there are a ton of other trade opportunites out there and I simply can’t bring them all to light here. However the Raptors need to focus on bringing in some real NBA Size at the Center and Power Forward position. If they don’t then they’ll need a few more draft picks and might have to draft a few more overage players with less High Upside to fit into this groups development window.
As you can see in my ‘Sample Negotiation’ I’m trying to pry a potential superstar away from an unsuspecting team. In that case it’s Sharpe, Avdija or Scoot. As a management group they would have to do their homework on these guys and try to get the one they feel the best about. And that would have to fit with the Blazers being willing to move off that potential. All 3 of those guys project to be slightly below All Star NBA material, but I bet one might pop and be an All Star for a few years. It’s a gamble but the cost of paying Ayton a bit more for a few years is worth the dice roll. Jak’s value is just going to decline as he hits the wrong side of 30 soon.
What Raptor Fans are much more likely to see this trade deadline is a Bruce Brown for expiring money and a second round pick. The Raptors might want to keep the expiring money around on a cheaper Vet deal and move off current team mascot Temple, squeezing a little more value out of the very small trade. A Chris Boucher trade away is most likely…again for very little in return. Likely an older player that might stay on the cheap and a second round pick.
Those types of deal are really housekeeping type deals and nothing interesting. They won’t help the team and Fans will be left to pray the draft selection is great. Typical for this team and what Fans are use to seeing really.