The drive to get into the Play In tournament started so long ago it seems to have left fans with a bad taste when the team didn’t get into the 7th or 8th seed. I find the whole fan reaction to a couple bad losses in Boston surprising on several levels. First off the games didn’t actually mean that much as the Raptors were largely locked into 9th unless a lot of things broke perfectly for the team. Further the Raptors have played under a ton of pressure for about a month now so a letdown is fairly human after that long a stretch. Finally this Raptors team is what it is…an inconsistent big Wing team that lacks shooting and defends well. These past few games haven’t changed that.
With that said I wanted to write about why this Raptors team really COULD go on a big playoff run and beat the Bucks in the first round. Yeah I’m not even going to mention beating the Bulls…I wrote about that already and I’m confident they will. The next game against the Heat or Hawks will be interesting on the road but I like the Raptors when they give 100%. I’ll pick them on the road against either team and I’ll write about it after we beat the Bulls. However this story is about why the Raptors could go on a long playoff run so let’s dig into it!
Reasons a Big Playoff Run is Possible
Defensive teams outperform in the playoffs. This is statistically proven and the Raptors are one hell of a good defensive team. The addition of Jak filled a huge hole and allowed O.G. to stop the opponent’s biggest star without having to defend huge centers down low. The Jak - O.G. defensive combo is seriously tough to crack. Of course the East is full of monsters like Embiid and specifically Giannis in Milwaukee but Jak is a top 5 defensive center in the NBA. He also has the help of a lot of bigger wings when needed to wall off a guy like Giannis or to slow him down up high while Jak picks him up at the top of the key. As long as Giannis doesn’t have a full head of steam coming at Jak I like his chances of holding the potential MVP to around 20 points a game. That’s a win against a guy like Giannis. If Jak can put up 14 points of his own then he’s come close to neutralizing one of the games very best players. Huge Win!
O.G. is a Monster. He can turn the water off anyone in the NBA and put up 20 points himself while spacing the floor or crashing inside to stuff it. Most teams are afraid of Big Stars going off and destroying them. Not Toronto. That rarely happens simply because of O.G. … he’s that good. In the playoffs it’s the big stars that carry teams through rounds and into deep water. Now that O.G. doesn’t have to defend centers down low he gets to shut down big stars. He’s going to neutralize Middleton or Holiday and might even get work turning off Giannis when Jak sits. I’m confident O.G. can stop any of them enough for the Raptors to win. Every team in the NBA wants O.G. because he is a playoff Monster. He also has ice water in his veins and hits big shots with a calm attitude few people have in big moments.
Toronto is a Big Boy team. If you’ve ever played a sport you understand that size matters. In the playoffs when things get more physical you want big boys around you. Shot making from outside comes and goes like a little green man in a lucky charms suit. But 5 foot bunny shots inside always seem to go in. The big, attacking wings on Toronto are built to drive it inside and work hard to get those short layups. Pascal can force defenses and set up his friends. Scottie is a wizard with short inside passes to cutters. Freddy can pick n roll as well as drive and dish. O.G. crashes inside like a wild Ox. Off the bench these Raptors bring big crashing wings as well. This Big Wing team can get inside a lot and that tends to still put up points in the tough-going playoffs. Sure a hot shooting team can beat anyone on any night but big teams that pound it inside tend to win long, 7 game series. They just physically wear down guys. Eventually little guys start making business decisions to get out of the way rather than get pounded for the hundredth time this series.
Injuries sink teams in the playoffs. The age of stars on a team like the Bucks is a real concern. Middleton, 31, sore knee already. Holiday, 32. Lopez, 35. Ingles, 35. That’s an old group surrounding one superstar in Giannis. We only see the injuries that keep players out of the game but the reality is most players play through many injuries…and older players get injured more often. It already looks like Khris will be playing with a bit of a sore knee if he even starts the first round in the first game! A big and younger team like the Raptors have the energy and injury advantage. A guy like Lopez goes down and the Bucks interior game changes dramatically against the huge Raptors. He’s 35 and he’s got a lot of beef driving at him. It might not be a question of if he gets injured but when. I don’t wish anyone injury but I need to calculate the possibilities into my predictions.
Toronto has a lot of talent. This year has been strange and the talent hasn’t all fit together well but in the playoffs talent tends to rise or fall. It’s hard for the other team to shut down a well-balanced team like Toronto. A coach can try to take away Pascal like they often do but he simply feeds others after he breaks down the D. If a starter isn’t going well in some game Nick’s got Gary on the bench who can bring starter-level minutes. He’s also got Boucher who is a great player to fill in for a starter that isn’t getting a job done. Nick even has a wildcard like Precious and Barton, both could bring some high-level minutes if they are on. A team like the Bucks is much, much more focused on Giannis. Middleton and Jrue usually won’t beat you without help. Hold Giannis to 20 and the Bucks are beatable. Hold Pascal to 20 and the Raptors still have lots of guys that will put up double-digit numbers. This diversity of attack makes defensive game planning tough, especially in the playoffs. Coaches like to take away actions or players from opponents but if you do that against Toronto they have other players to exploit the defensive gaps you leave.
Coaching matters. The Raptors have one of the more adaptable coaching minds in the NBA today. Nick worked his way up the coaching ranks the hard way. Nothing was given to him. He adapted and adjusted his way through near beer league championships all the way up to the NBA. He was so good Masai actually fired his Coach of the Year in Dwayne Casey to give Nick the head coaching job. In a 7 game series coaching adjustments really, really matter. The average fan won’t see it but subtle adjustments get teams rolling suddenly. Subtle match-up mismatches turn into a long run. Coach Bud isn’t known to be a big creative adjustment guy. He brings a plan about how his team will win and he pounds away at it. Nick reaches for different tools when he sees a problem. He junks it up to get stars out of their rhythm. While Nurse gets valid criticism for how he handles bench players and their development he’s one of the best creative in-game coaches in the NBA…and that’s what the playoffs are about. Kiddy development time is long over. I ride with Nick each and every time come playoffs.
I hope that’s more than a ray of optimism for Raptor Fans as we head into these Play In and hopefully Playoff games. I don’t write this to blow smoke up anyone’s you know what either. I’m not pandering to fans who want to hear some good news about their team at a critical time. I honestly believe this Raptors team has a ton of great qualities that will shine much more in the Playoffs than they do in the regular season. I’m sure Masai is also confident of the same thing otherwise there is no way he would have added at the trade deadline. A vote of confidence from a basketball-mind like Masai is one hell of a vote!
I can’t guarantee anything of course. Nobody can. I like this team thou. They haven’t put it all together this season and that’s too bad. However they have a lot of ingredients that can carry them much farther these playoffs than most pundits are expecting. A couple big wins could feed them the confidence that can carry them a long way. Get a big win in one of those first 2 games in Milwaukee and just watch this young Raptors team bring it games 3 and 4 at home in Toronto. I’m officially on the bandwagon these playoffs! I expect more than most…I hope I’ve helped you feel a bit more comfortable on the wagon with me or even lifted you back up on the wagon!
Nice article. Go Raptors!